October 11, 2006

Population Projections: Trends and Explanations
September, 2006

• The upper dotted line represents the projected population growth of the United States. Data points through 2005 are based on the USCIS Yearbook of Immigration Studies for 2000-2005 plus an estimated number of illegal aliens. The totals are congruent with several estimates* of up to 30 million illegal aliens in the United States [compared to the Census Bureau estimate of 12 million]. The trend indicated by joining the data points 2000 and 2005 indicate that the RATE OF GROWTH IS INCREASING.
  
  
• Extrapolation indicates that the time for the U.S. population to double is approximately 50 years, which represents a growth rate of 1.4% annually.
  
  
• Not so long ago, the time for the U.S. population to double was 70 years. The shortening of the doubling time would indicate that the rate of growth is increasing. Even on a logarithmic scale, the dotted line would be bending upward. The slope based on the expectation that the rate of growth will continue to increase yields a nightmare scenario of an estimated population of 500 million by 2026, and I billion by 2075.
  
  
• The red section represents the projected population growth resulting from post-1970 immigrants and their offspring. This line uses the most recent Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) estimate, which indicates that legal and illegal immigration and the offspring of post-1970 immigrants presently accounts for nearly 90% of U.S. population growth. Legal immigration accounted for approximately two-thirds of this growth in the past decade and about half of that growth in recent years. Under current law and enforcement assumptions, mass immigration will generate more than 90% of the total U.S. population growth in the 21st century.
  
  
• The blue section represents the projected population growth resulting from pre-1970 immigrants and the native born and their offspring. Without post-1970 immigration, we would be on track to stabilize our population in approximately the next 30 years. NOTE THAT Census Bureau consistently underestimates and has had to revise population size upward after each of the last few censuses. Upward revisions apparently still do not capture all of the growth, as revealed by discrepancies with the Census Bureau's own American Community Survey. See comparison before and after the year 2000 census. The American Community Survey is a new annual version of the Federal Census Bureau's long-form questionnaire designed to capture the nation's demographic profile in a timelier moving picture, rather than a once-a-decade snapshot.
  
  
• The following is the basis for the Year 2000 data points:
  
  Revised Census Bureau corrected by Census Bureau's American Community Survey: 301 million
  
  Revised Census Bureau figures: 282 million
  
  Unrevised Census Bureau figures [published before 10-year census results]: 276 million
  
  Population from pre-1970 immigrants and native-born: approximately 225 million

Consequences of Continued U.S. Population Growth:

• One acre of farmland or wild land lost for every person added.
  
  
• 25.55 barrels of oil consumed annually for every person added.
  
  
• 12,331 kilowatt-hours of electricity consumed annually for every person added.
  
  
• 1,932 cubic meters of water withdrawn annually from aquifers for every person added.

*Stoddard, David J. “Testimony Submitted to U.S. Subcommittee on Criminal Justice, Drug Policy and Human Resources.” Representative Mark Souder, Chairman February 22, 2002…..Justich, Robert, Ng, Betty. “The Underground Labor Force Is Rising to the Surface.” New York, Bear Stearns Asset Management, January 3, 2005…..Corsi, Jerome and Gilchrist, Jim. “Minutemen: That Battle to Secure America’s Borders” NewsMax, 2006. Revised Census Bureau corrected by data from the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS): 301 million