Virginia Deane Abernethy, Ph.D.
Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
Chairman, Board of Directors, Population-Environment Balance
October, 2006

Censuses and population growth estimates are among the most important contributions that a federal government can make to the commerce and prosperity of a nation. Article I Section 2 of the Constitution requires periodic Enumeration of the Numbers of the several States and directs use of the Numbers to determine apportionment of "Representatives and direct taxes" among the States.

Accuracy is of utmost importance. Yet, various anomalies suggest that the Census Bureau is falling short. The reported numbers appear to be far short of the actual size and growth rate of the U.S. population.

The Census Bureau [CB] suggests that the U.S. population will reach 300 million sometime this month, October 2006. Other figures, however, indicate that the 300 million benchmark was reached approximately 6 years ago, and that the present population is approximately 327 million and growing at an accelerating rate.

The sources of growth, annually, are 1.7 million natural increase [in year 2005], approximately 1 million legal immigrants, and 2 to 3 million illegal aliens who stay. Summing up, the population grows by 4.7 million to 5.7 million annually. The annual rate of growth is 1.4 to 1.7 percent. If at the lower growth rate, 1.4 percent per year, the population doubling time is 50 years.

Superficially small percentage differences in growth rate make a large difference in future population size. Growth rates mentioned in the Report include 1.06 percent annually for the interval 1970 to 2000. This foretells a population that doubles in 66 years.

With 1.2 percent annual growth [given by the CB as the rate between 1990 and 2000], the doubling time is 58 years. With 1.4 percent annual growth, it takes 50 years to double; and with 1.7 percent annual growth, 41 years. [The formula is 70 divided by the annual percentage growth rate = years to double.]

If the trend of an accelerating growth rate continues, the population is projected to fly past the 1 billion mark before the end of this century. The trend is not, however, immutably on track.

Immigration and the children of recent immigrants account for nearly 90 percent of growth. Therefore, stopping mass immigration avoids adding upwards of 3 million persons per year plus their children who would be born in future years. For perspective, in 2004, Hispanic births accounted for nearly one-quarter of total births.

Legal immigrants act as a magnet for friends and relatives to come illegally and also provide a safe harbor in which they remain. Thus, a temporary immigration moratorium appears to be the best strategy for developing a well-ordered, legal immigration system that is responsive to the interests of the United States.

Immigration realists point to the labor force, environmental, fiscal, and social consequences of rapid population growth. Problems are exacerbated if the incoming population is culturally diverse and does not want, necessarily, to assimilate to the civil, economic, and legal traditions of the host society.

The Report, "Census Bureau Distortions Hide Immigration Crisis," has two parts. The first is essentially demography. The second is economic and social. For the reader's convenience, the essay is divided by an Addendum that describes Population Reference Bureau [PRB] promulgation of Census Bureau numbers, and the annual population figures for 1980 and 1985 to the present.